Quantica Risk Modelling

AI Compliance Risk Assessment: A Quantica Risk Modelling Framework

By Jonas Osman Abdelghafour · 26 September 2026

AI risk assessment is most useful when it supports a decision: approve, restrict, redesign, monitor, pause or retire. Quantica Risk Modelling's approach starts with the use case and maps customer, prudential, operational, legal, conduct, privacy and cyber impacts before selecting a model or supplier.

Score impact and uncertainty separately

Impact measures the consequence if the system is wrong or misused. Uncertainty measures how confident the organisation is in its data, validation, monitoring and control evidence. A low-frequency but high-impact use case should not be treated as low risk merely because few incidents have occurred.

Assess control strength

Review human oversight, access, data quality, explainability, validation, monitoring, incident response, supplier resilience and exit. A control receives credit only when it is designed, implemented and evidenced. Residual risk is the remaining exposure after those controls operate.

Turn the assessment into action

Define thresholds for approval, escalation and re-assessment. Record the decision, owner, evidence and review date. The NIST AI RMF provides a complementary lifecycle reference. This article describes Quantica's analytical perspective, not a regulatory certification.

About the author

Jonas (Yonas) Osman Abdelghafour writes about financial risk management, quantitative modelling, actuarial science, banking risk, insurance risk, capital modelling, model validation, climate risk and geopolitical risk. His work focuses on translating complex quantitative and regulatory risk issues into practical frameworks for financial institutions. Author profile.