Independent actuarial commentary by Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman, CEO of Quantica Risk Modelling. This article analyses a public Lloyd's release; it is not a Lloyd's statement.
Lloyd's reported £34.7bn of gross written premium for the first half of 2026, up 6.9% on the comparable period, with a reported combined ratio of 90.8%. The headline is positive, but a professional actuarial reading must separate volume, price, claims, expenses and reserve movements before drawing a conclusion about forward underwriting quality.
Why the underlying ratio matters
The reported ratio improved from 92.5% to 90.8%, while the underlying combined ratio moved from 82.1% to 84.0%. Lloyd's attributes the difference partly to a lower major-claims ratio in the period. That makes the underlying measure the better starting point for a prospective pricing discussion: it asks what the portfolio may earn before unusually favourable catastrophe experience.
Decompose the movement
An actuary should build a bridge from prior-year ratio to current-year ratio: risk-adjusted rate change, claims frequency and severity, expense ratio, prior-year development, mix, foreign exchange and major losses. A single percentage can hide opposing movements. Here, premium growth and the headline claims outcome coexist with softer risk-adjusted rates and a higher expense ratio.
The practical question for a syndicate is not whether 90.8% is good. It is whether the prospective loss-cost view, expense base and reserve margin remain adequate after the temporary benefits are removed. This is the difference between reporting analysis and actuarial decision support.
Quantica Risk perspective
For a portfolio review, I recommend monitoring three views together: reported combined ratio, underlying combined ratio and an accident-year view that excludes reserve releases. The set should be reconciled to exposure growth and rate adequacy. That discipline helps boards avoid extrapolating one favourable half-year into a pricing assumption.
Source: Lloyd's public half-year release.